The View from Right Field

“One Little, Two Little, Three Little Babies.” China Changes Its Policy Again.

Six years after abandoning its one-child policy for a two-child policy, China has now gone to a three-child policy.  The one-child policy, which began to be strictly enforced in 1980, was put in place to limit population growth in the world’s most populous country.  The problem was that it worked too well, and in 2015 China went to a two-child policy because its population was aging and its workforce was shrinking.

But the birth rate hasn’t rebounded.  Economic growth around the world has reduced the number of babies that women have, and China has been no exception.  As its middle class has grown, its birth rate has fallen.

We Defended Berlin. Will We Help Defend Taiwan?

Several years ago, we were on a tour of Morocco.  One of the couples in our group was of Chinese ancestry.  The wife said she had been born in Taiwan and had come to the United States when she was young.  I asked the husband when he had come to the United States.  I was embarrassed when he said that he had been born in the United States and that his ancestors had come to the United States in the 1800s, to help build the transcontinental railroad.  In other words, his ancestors may have come to the United States before mine.

One of the other people in the group asked them if they thought China, i.e., the People’s Republic of China, would invade Taiwan.  The wife said Beijing could take Taiwan anytime it wanted to.  The husband, however, who was a retired major general in the Army, merely mentioned the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 and did not say much else.

H.R. McMaster on Strategy Against the Soviet Union and Strategy Against China

Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (Ret.) and Jonathan D.T. Ward wrote in Thursday’s Chicago Tribune that the United States’ strategy vis-à-vis China should include the kind of policies used by President Reagan in the Cold War against the Soviet Union.  Messrs. McMaster and Ward explain:

“Reagan’s approach – applying intensive economic and military pressure to a superpower adversary – became foundational to American strategic thinking. It hastened the end of Soviet power and promoted a peaceful conclusion to the multi-decade Cold War.”

While Trump Stews, Mike Pompeo Has Been Busy

It’s unclear what Donald Trump has been doing with his time now that he is off Twitter, Facebook, etc., but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been working hard.  Karen DeYoung has a list of what he has been doing.  It’s a lot – and it’s wrong.  Instead of working on a transition, Secretary Pompeo has been throwing up roadblocks for the Biden administration.

As Ms. DeYoung notes, what Secretary Pompeo can be reversed, but in most cases, it will take time.  Also, the process of reversing those decisions could hurt the very people and policies Secretary Pompeo is trying to protect. 

Do Uighur Lives Matter? – Part Two: Do We Care?

In an earlier post I talked about why I thought saying “Uighur Lives Matter” could be problematic.  But beyond that, I don’t think “Uighurs Lives Matter” would carry the day in the United States, even if saying it wasn’t problematic.  Let me mention a couple of reasons.  First, a number of Americans just don’t care about what is going on elsewhere in the world.  It is part of their America First approach.  They feel we need to make economic deals with China.  We have to take care of ourselves; we can’t worry about the Uighurs.  This is certainly what former National Security Adviser John Bolton says that President Trump told President Xi Jinping. 

Second, lots of individual Americans and American companies are intimidated by China.  They see over a billion Chinese and decide sales and profits are more important than principles and doing what is right.

Do Uighur Lives Matter?

Black Lives Matter has swept the United States.  It is on tee shirts and signs outside churches.  It is painted on city streets and basketball floors.  Along with the pandemic, it is the thing most associated with 2020. 

My question is: What about “Uighur Lives Matter”?  The Chinese have been cracking down on the Uighurs for years.  The repression has gotten worse since President Xi Jinping took office.  Uighurs are labeled terrorists, and police are everywhere.  Reports are that over a million Uighurs are in forced labor camps, which the Chinese call re-education or training centers.¹

Traveling Can Make Current Events More Current

One of the great joys of travel is going to places where history has happened.  The Pyramids, Machu Pichu, Abraham Lincoln’s home in Springfield, Illinois, the Capitol building in Washington, etc.  Seeing places like these can help you better understand history, as well as giving you a personal connection to events in the past.

But if you are lucky, travel can also take you to places where things are happening now or may happen in the future.  Seeing such places can make current events more interesting and personal and maybe even more understandable.  We were lucky enough to be in West Berlin and East Germany in 1979 and 1982, so when the protests arose and the Wall came down in 1989, we had an appreciation of what was happening that we might not have otherwise had. 

Beijing Says Taiwan Is an “Ant” – But an Ant Can Have “High Hopes”

China has ridiculed Taiwan’s increase in defense spending as a waste of money.  According to Zhao Lijian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman:

“No matter how much it spends, as we all know, Taiwan is a small island.  If it wants to fight against mainland China, it is like an ant trying to move a tree.”¹

Still, as we know, if a Taiwanese ant has “high hopes”, Beijing may find that “oops, there goes another rubber tree plant”²:

China, WHO, and the Next Time

In a conversation with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs last week, former New Zealand Prime Minister and former head of the United Nations Development Programme¹ Helen Clark said that, at the multilateral level, the world has not risen to the challenge of Covid-19.  She noted that, in 2014, the UN Security Council declared a public health emergency with respect to Ebola, but this time, the Security Council has done nothing.  As to why, she says it relates to the toxic nature of international politics.

Which is true.  But it seems to me the reason is more specific than that.  While Donald Trump does not believe in multilateral organizations and is, in my opinion, a terrible president in terms of foreign relations,² the biggest reason there has been no coordinated international action on Covid-19 is simple.  It’s China.  It appears China screwed up big time on Covid-19.  The best information is that Covid-19 started in Wuhan, China.  But for some reason China did not get on top of it right away (or at least didn’t do enough).  There are a number of possible reasons (and there needs to be an investigation), but regardless of the reason(s), at this point it looks like China had a chance to stop or contain this virus before it spread.  But it didn’t, and now it’s killing people all over the world.³  And the problem with a coordinated international response, from China’s part of view, is that part of such a response would be an investigation that would make China’s failings more difficult to hide.

What’s With WHO? WHO’s With China?

No, this is not some 2020 version of Abbott and Costello.  It’s a question about how the World Health Organization, and China, are doing vis-à-vis the Covid-19 pandemic.  The answer is not good – or at least not nearly as good as they should be.¹  WHO ignored a report from Taiwan on December 31 that about person-to-person transmission of Covid-19 in Wuhan.²  WHO ignored the report because Beijing won’t allow WHO to include or listen to Taiwan.  When President Trump imposed a partial travel ban on travel to China on January 31, WHO was saying that travel bans were a bad idea.  WHO didn’t declare Covid-19 a pandemic until March 11, which was absurdly late.

So, what do we do with WHO – and more importantly China?  President Trump is delaying U.S. contributions to WHO.³  I understand the frustration, but is that what we should be doing now?  Is WHO the real problem or is it China?  If it is China, what do we do about them? 

For some good thoughts on the latter, look at these comments by former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, now a Fellow at the Hoover Institution: