The View from Right Field

Lessons for the Next Pandemic from this Pandemic

The Financial Times reported on Monday¹ that Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyesus, the head of the World Health Organization, is calling on China to “give full access” to a team from WHO to investigate how the pandemic emerged.  Yeah, right.  Like China is going to do that.  They haven’t done it so far; they’re not going to do it now.  It’s sort of silly to keep calling for it.

But what I found more interesting about the article was this paragraph:

“The two most prominent theories [as to the virus’s origin] envisage either a zoonotic jump from animal to humans via Wuhan’s wet food markets or contagion stemming from an accidental leak from the city’s virology laboratory.  But no scientific consensus has emerged from the debate, and Tedros reiterated that all options remained “‘on the table’.”

If You Want People to Follow Covid Rules, They Need to Make Sense

I don’t know what is going to happen with Covid.  I don’t think anybody, at least anybody who is being honest, does.  Among the problems (out of many) of the last two years has been the false certainty of so many people.  There has not been enough humility and honest uncertainty.

In that regard, let me just complain about one rule that, while it made sense when it was adopted, doesn’t make sense any more but stays in place because nobody seems to think about it.

Covid-19. Ukraine. Do We Ever Learn Anything?

When Covid-19, then known as the coronavirus, hit in early 2020, we weren’t ready.  We didn’t have enough personal protective equipment, our medical systems were inadequate, the plans we had for pandemics didn’t work, etc.  Things were a mess.  On April 26, 2020, I wrote a long post entitled “Preparing for the ‘Next’ Coronavirus – Whatever It Is. But Will We?”  But the post was not talking about just the next virus.  It was asking about the next emergency, the next disaster, the next big problem, whatever it was.  In the conclusion of my post, I said this:

“Robustness.  Resiliency.  Nimbleness.  These are what we need if we are to be ready for the emergencies and disasters that will happen, though we don’t know which ones or when.  Most of all, however, we need leaders who understand the importance of these qualities and who can provide the leadership to help us secure them and maintain them.”

Covid Vaccine Mandates: Let’s Not Do More Harm Than the Good We Can Actually Achieve

When the Covid vaccines first came out, I got my shots as soon as I could.  When the booster was authorized, I was there.  If a fourth shot is approved, as Israel is doing, I’ll be in line right away. 

Still, I’m beginning to worry the continuing efforts to force people to get vaccinated are not helpful.  I understand the logic of the mandates, and I wish everybody would get their shots.  But clearly, there is some group of people isn’t going to. 

An Alternate Covid History

Here’s a thought experiment or maybe, more accurately, a possible alternate history of Covid in the United States:

• Donald Trump wins re-election in November of 2020.  (It was possible.  As I noted here, Joe Biden’s margin of victory was only 66,000 votes.¹)

National Health Insurance – The Other Kind

When people think of health insurance, they normally think of the insurance that pays their medical bills.  And when they think of national health insurance, they think of a national system that either provides people health care or pays their bills.  England has a National Health Service that does the former.  The United States has Medicare, which does the latter.¹

But I would suggest there is another kind of national health insurance.  The purpose of this kind of national health insurance isn’t to pay bills or provide services.  It is, rather, to make sure there is enough capacity in the health care system so that you can get care when you need it, separate and apart from who pays for it.

Vaccine Equity

It’s interesting how ideas bounce around the world.  Back in February and March, the stories in the United States were about how hard it was to get the vaccine and whether shots were being distributed “equitably”.  There were complaints that minority communities were not getting their fair share of vaccines and that whites were getting shots that “belonged” to minorities.

Much the same thing happened earlier this month in New Zealand.  David Seymour, the head of ACT New Zealand, a right/libertarian party, got in trouble for publishing a “Priority Access Code for Maori” for Covid vaccinations.  But as Mr. Seymour explained, his publishing of the code had no practical effect.  The code wasn’t private; other people knew it; and the people giving the shots were vaccinating anybody who showed up anyway.  Plus, New Zealand has had fewer than 2,000 cases of Covid and just two deaths since January 1, so it really doesn’t matter the exact order in which people get shots.  The key is getting them vaccinated.

Designing Things For the People Who Use Them

Tim Harford wrote recently about the problems he had interpreting the instructions for a mail-order Covid test.¹  It was, he said, a matter of what behavioral economists call “the curse of knowledge,” i.e., “the difficulty a well-informed person has in fully appreciating the depth of someone else’s ignorance.” 

As Mr. Harford notes, “[a]nyone who has assembled a Lego set can attest that, with enough care, it is possible to provide clear instructions even for complex tasks.”  The problem is that too often people don’t take “enough care.”

Covid and Charging More for Not Getting the Vaccine

Some governmental units and companies are requiring their employees to get a Covid vaccine shot: staff at nursing homes and hospitals; teachers; and more.  Delta Airlines is taking a different approach: they’re adding a $200 monthly surcharge on the cost of health insurance plans for employees who won’t get a shot.¹  The reaction seems to be: that’s a great idea.  After all, if you get Covid and have to go to the hospital, which is a lot more likely if you don’t get a shot, it costs a lot of money. 

I understand the reaction.  We need to get people vaccinated.  Requiring them to get a shot.  Adding a surcharge to an employee’s health insurance premium.  Whatever it takes.  This is a pandemic.

I Don’t Like Joe Biden and I’m Wearing a Mask. Here’s Why.

Actually, I’m not going to talk about why I don’t like Joe Biden.  And it’s not that I don’t like President Biden.  He seems like a nice person – unlike his predecessor.  It’s just that I don’t like his policies.  It’s important to note that the fact I don’t like his policies doesn’t mean I liked his predecessor’s policies.  You can dislike the policies of both of them, and I did/do.

What I am going to talk about is why I wear a mask when I go into stores, even though I am fully vaccinated.  Tim Harford explained it well in his column in the FT Weekend yesterday: