The View from Right Field

Electric Cars, Ice Storms, and the Grid

I was driving home from Lincoln, Nebraska, last weekend.  (We were there to meet a beautiful new granddaughter.)  As I drove back, I remembered another drive back from Nebraska.  It was in 2006 or 2007.  This time we were in Omaha, visiting our son who was going to Creighton University.  We drove home the day after a massive snow/ice storm hit Iowa.  As we were driving on I-80 across Iowa, we saw the effects of the storm: piles of snow, semis in the ditch, etc.  It was sort of scary, except we were a day after the storm, so the roads were clear, and it didn’t affect our driving.  

The only real problem for us was that electricity was out all along I-80, and we were starting to run low on gas.  (Note to self: In the winter {or spring or fall}, don’t let your gas tank get too low.  You never know when stations might be closed.)  Fortunately, we finally found a gas station that was open: It had a generator, so it had electricity and its gas pumps worked.  To say we were happy – and relieved – is an understatement.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather, Carbon Limits – and Adapting

If it is true the extreme weather we have been having is a result of climate change, i.e., putting too much carbon into the atmosphere, then two things:

First, my suggestion with respect to putting less carbon into the atmosphere is a carbon tax, especially a carbon tax that would be refunded to everybody equally, on a per capita basis.  A carbon tax would probably be one of the quickest, most effective, and least costly ways to cut carbon.  A cap-and-trade system might work, too.  Heavy government regulation is a less good option.  It wouldn’t work as well, and it would be slower.¹

The Problem Climate Change Advocates Haven’t Solved

The difficulty in solving climate change can be seen in two articles in Saturday’s FT Weekend.  The first article, on the front page, was headlined “Germany fears climate change caused floods.”¹  I don’t need to say much about that article.  The point is clear from its headline.

The problem we are going to have in addressing climate change is in the second article, on page three: “EU climate policy runs into torrent of criticism.”²  Here are some excerpts from that article:

Offloading Obligations Onto Future Generations – In Germany and the United States

A recent decision of the constitutional court in Germany has a lesson for the United States.  In Germany, the constitution works differently.  The constitution, actually, it’s called the Basic Law, and it dates back to 1949 and the founding of West Germany, allows for the federal constitutional court to get involved on issues and in ways that are different from what happens in the United States.

In late April, the constitutional court issued an important decision on Germany’s climate change law.  The Financial Times reported:

Cutting Carbon Now

New York is shutting down the Indian Point nuclear power plant, which in the past has supplied upwards of 25% of the electricity for New York City and Westchester County.  So where is the electricity going to come from, especially since New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has blocked the construction of pipelines that would bring natural gas to New York City?  Governor Cuomo has proposed building 9,000 megawatts of offshore wind power and a 250-mile transmission line from upstate New York to bring in renewable energy, but they aren’t ready yet - obviously.  Also, given the opposition there will be to such proposals, who knows when they will be built, if ever.  After all, the Biden administration has already withdrawn proposals for offshore wind power developments off certain parts of Long Island because ….  Well, there are always good reasons for not building such things in one’s own backyard.  (Here.)

But, don’t worry about power blackouts in New York because, even if there is a shortage of natural gas, gas-powered plants can switch to oil.  Huh?  We’re trying to cut carbon emissions, so the solution is to: (i) shut down an existing nuclear plant, which supplies, by definition, at least once it is built, carbon-free power; (ii) block natural gas pipelines because natural gas emits carbon and we want to be carbon-zero; and (iii) use oil, the most carbon-intensive of all three, as the back-up power source until we can get wind farms and transmission lines for renewable energy built.

Texas - and Illinois

Texas has been getting a lot of bad press lately.  I commented here last Thursday.  But Texas isn’t the only state that is messed up.  Here is a letter to the editor that was published in the Chicago Tribune yesterday:

“Comparing Texas, Illinois

The more I read of the problems in Texas, the more it sounds like Illinois.  Texas could have built a utility system that would have handled the recent cold weather.  We have windmills in Illinois that work in winter, and Manitoba in Canada has water systems that work.

Why Wasn’t Texas Ready for the Cold? Why Weren’t We Ready for Covid-19?

In talking about getting ready for the next coronavirus, etc., last April, I said this in my conclusion:

“Robustness.  Resiliency.  Nimbleness.  These are what we need if we are to be ready for the emergencies and disasters that will happen, though we don’t know which ones or when.” 

The problem is, however, as I said in December:

“Building robustness, resiliency, and nimbleness into our systems and our countries, and maintaining them over time, will cost money, a lot of it.” 

Bad Sprawl. Good Sprawl.

If we are going to cut our carbon emissions, to save the planet, we are told we need more housing density and more mass transit, and we need fewer single-family homes and fewer automobiles.  But then came Covid-19, and the requirement to socially distance.  Which is really hard in crowded cities and on jammed buses and subways.

If you are an essential worker who has to go to work, what better way to do it than in a car – by yourself.¹  Sheltering at home is easier in a single-family house than a one-bedroom, 600-square-foot apartment (with a couple of roommates).  If you want to take a walk, to get some exercise, what’s better: a neighborhood of houses built on 35- or 50-foot lots or a neighborhood of apartment buildings with 35 floors?

Solving Climate Change Needs Solutions We Haven’t Invented Yet

Earlier this month, I wrote about getting to carbon-free and suggested that natural gas from fracking and nuclear power were part of the way to get there while putting relatively less carbon into the atmosphere on the way.  Today, I am going to make another suggestion with respect to climate change.  Most of the proposals for addressing climate change and getting to carbon-free are not easy.  In fact, they are downright hard, and they will cause a lot of pain for a lot of people.  It’s not just cutting out the occasional airplane flight or getting rid of plastic straws.  We are talking real impacts on living standards – especially on people who are still hoping to increase theirs. 

If Emanuel Macron had trouble raising gasoline taxes as part of his environmental plan in France, how are people in China and India, etc., going to feel if their chance at a higher living standard is cut off by a green agenda?  I realize that climate change advocates, perhaps especially those in the West, will say that the alternative is global catastrophe, but that is easier to say when you already have a higher standard of living than when you are giving up a chance to ever get one.

Getting to Carbon-Free

Carbon-free.  That is the goal.  Companies, countries are setting a goal of becoming carbon-free.  Some are aiming at 2030.  Others 2040.  And others still 2050.  But regardless of the date, the goal is the same.  To become carbon-free.  To not only reduce the amount of carbon being put into the atmosphere each year, but to get to zero.

But how we get to carbon-free is important, too.   And that is where it gets tricky.  The point is that carbon in the atmosphere doesn’t go away (or at least not very fast).  While getting to carbon-free is important to minimize the effects of climate change, how much carbon we put into the atmosphere while we are getting to carbon-free is important, too.