The View from Right Field

Are the Sanctions Against Russia Working?

The Economist asked this question in its August 27 issue.  The answer was equivocal:

“On a three- to five-year horizon isolation from Western markets will cause havoc in Russia. …

The trouble is that the knockout blow has not materialised. Russia’s GDP will shrink by 6% in 2022, reckons the IMF, much less than the 15% drop many expected in March, or the slump in Venezuela. Energy sales will generate a current-account surplus of $265bn this year, the world’s second-largest after China. After a crunch, Russia’s financial system has stabilised ….

It turns out the sanctions weapon has flaws.” 

Where Do We Get Our Purposes From? Business, Government – Or Ourselves

The following letter to the editor, which appears in the Financial Times on May 16, 2022, relates to a column by Brooke Masters in the FT of May 12, 2022, entitled “Profits not purpose still dominate at Volkswagen”:

Brooke Masters notes that Herbert Diess, Volkswagen chief executive, has called for a quick end to the Russian war against Ukraine (not that he calls it that), in order to “get back to trying to open up the world again”.  As Ms. Masters says, “[p]rofit not purpose is his priority”.

Covid-19. Ukraine. Do We Ever Learn Anything?

When Covid-19, then known as the coronavirus, hit in early 2020, we weren’t ready.  We didn’t have enough personal protective equipment, our medical systems were inadequate, the plans we had for pandemics didn’t work, etc.  Things were a mess.  On April 26, 2020, I wrote a long post entitled “Preparing for the ‘Next’ Coronavirus – Whatever It Is. But Will We?”  But the post was not talking about just the next virus.  It was asking about the next emergency, the next disaster, the next big problem, whatever it was.  In the conclusion of my post, I said this:

“Robustness.  Resiliency.  Nimbleness.  These are what we need if we are to be ready for the emergencies and disasters that will happen, though we don’t know which ones or when.  Most of all, however, we need leaders who understand the importance of these qualities and who can provide the leadership to help us secure them and maintain them.”

Gail Halvorsen, the “Candy Bomber.” RIP

Gail Halvorsen, who was known as “Candy Bomber” for dropping candy and sweets to the children of West Berlin while flying the Berlin Airlift in 1948, has passed away at the age of 101.  The story of the Airlift is amazing (as I have said before):

“In 1948, the Soviet Union blocked the western land routes to Berlin.  In response, and just three years after the Allies had defeated the Germans in a war that lasted almost six years for the British, the U.S. and Britain operated an around-the-clock airlift to supply West Berlin with everything it needed to survive, from food to coal.  The Airlift lasted fifteen months and turned enemies into fast friends.  It may have been the biggest defeat the Soviets suffered in the Cold War until the Wall itself came down in 1989.”¹ 

The story of the “Candy Bomber” and “Operation Little Vittles” may be even more amazing.  You can read about it here.²  You can read more about Colonel Halvorsen here.

Illinois in 2021 Reminds Us of the Suddenness of Change and the Brittleness of Autocracy

Here’s something I was going to write as an end-of-the-year post, but things got busy, so I’m writing it as a looking-back-at-2021 post:

At the end of last year, the media was full of lists of the biggest stories of 2021.  Most of them were pretty much the same: Covid, inflation, Democrats not being able to pass President Biden’s Build Back Better bill, Vladimir Putin massing troops on Ukraine’s border, etc.

Ukraine. What’s Next?

I was glad to see that the United States and NATO did not give in to Russia on Ukraine in talks last week.  That was good – and important.  But we need to do more than just avoid ill-advised concessions.  We need to help Ukraine defend itself. 

There has been discussion as to what we would do if Russia attacks Ukraine.  I have a better idea: Instead of talking about the things we will and won’t do if Russia invades,¹ let’s start doing things now – so an invasion doesn’t happen.  First, let’s get lots more weapons to Ukraine.  Germany has objected to NATO providing certain weapons to Ukraine because it might provoke Russia.  Huh?  Russia has invaded Ukraine, annexed part of its territory, and now massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border, and Ukraine might provoke Russia?  If Germany stops NATO from providing weapons, let’s do it ourselves. 

60th Anniversary of the Berlin Wall

Sixty years ago today, the Berlin Wall went up.  It started with barbed wire and wound up with concrete, killing strips, and attack dogs.  The Berlin Wall seems out of date and out of history, at least out of the history we talk about today.  But for those who were alive during it, it was what history was about.

I am not going to write a lot about it here.  I have done that before.  You can find a post about the building the Wall here and pictures of the Wall here.  You can find posts about the fall of the Wall by looking in the “Berlin” subhead in “Categories” section in the right column.

Offloading Obligations Onto Future Generations – In Germany and the United States

A recent decision of the constitutional court in Germany has a lesson for the United States.  In Germany, the constitution works differently.  The constitution, actually, it’s called the Basic Law, and it dates back to 1949 and the founding of West Germany, allows for the federal constitutional court to get involved on issues and in ways that are different from what happens in the United States.

In late April, the constitutional court issued an important decision on Germany’s climate change law.  The Financial Times reported:

George Marshall on Character

In a speech on “Marshall and His Generals” at the George Marshall Foundation on July 20, 2017, Dr. Stephen Taaffe talked about the four criteria that Army Chief of Staff General George Marshall used to pick the high-ranking officers¹ for the U.S. Army during World War II.²  Let me mention them, in reverse order:

1. General Marshall wanted to know them personally or know somebody who knew them personally.

2. Age.  (Sorry.  I realize it is politically incorrect today, but General Marshall didn’t want older generals.)

The Fall of the Berlin Wall: 30 Years On. #BerlinWall30

This Saturday is the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.  Readers of this blog will know that I have written about the Wall a lot.  You can find what I wrote on the 20th and 25th anniversaries of the fall of the Wall by clicking on “Berlin” in the list of Categories in the right margin.  The 25th anniversary, which we were lucky enough to be in Berlin for, was especially great.  But things seem to have changed since then.

Events are going the wrong direction in parts of eastern Europe and eastern Germany.  Viktor Orban is solidifying control in Hungary.  Law and Justice recently won re-election in Poland.  And in eastern Germany, the AfD increased its vote in state elections.  The populism that has come to the West is also increasing in eastern Europe.