The View from Right Field

If Government Wants Our Trust, It Needs to Follow Proper Process

Illinois recently adopted a law ending cash bail.  I’m not going to discuss the merits of the new law; that’s not the purpose of this post.  I want to talk about how the bill was passed because that says something important about Illinois and the way we are governed.

A law abolishing cash bail is a big deal.  You would think that there would be a lot of discussion about it.  And that those passing it would want the process to be proper and to be seen to be proper.

Texas - and Illinois

Texas has been getting a lot of bad press lately.  I commented here last Thursday.  But Texas isn’t the only state that is messed up.  Here is a letter to the editor that was published in the Chicago Tribune yesterday:

“Comparing Texas, Illinois

The more I read of the problems in Texas, the more it sounds like Illinois.  Texas could have built a utility system that would have handled the recent cold weather.  We have windmills in Illinois that work in winter, and Manitoba in Canada has water systems that work.

Got That Wrong: U.S. Attorney for Northern District of Illinois

In a post back in August of 2020 on why Kim Foxx would win re-election as Cook County State’s Attorney (she did), I said:

“It is entirely possible that the biggest reason the Illinois Democratic Party, or at least its leaders, wants to beat Donald Trump in November is not his response to Covid-19 – or any other policy President Trump has.  Instead, it might be because, if Joe Biden wins, John Lausch might no longer be U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois.  A President Biden can replace him.  In 2008, when the investigation of then-Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich was going on, Barack Obama promised that he would not replace then-U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald­­­­­.  As far as I know, Joe Biden has not made a similar promise.  And I would not expect him to do so.  Getting rid of Mr. Lausch is too important to Illinois Democrats.”

It looks like I might have been wrong on this.  The Biden administration has told almost all U.S. attorneys that they need to submit their resignations by the end of February.  In response, both Illinois Senators, Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth (the former being more important than the latter), have urged President Biden to keep John Lausch, the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, on the job.  Which is the opposite of what I said in August.

Nothing Is Better Than Too Much; Nothing Is Better Than Too Little

That is the essence of the dispute in Congress on a coronavirus relief bill.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans say that the plan proposed by the Democrats is too big and they won’t approve it.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats say that the plan proposed by the Senate Republicans is too small and they won’t approve it.  In other words, both of them are saying that doing nothing is better than passing the bill the other side wants.  And so, nothing is done.

Which sounds familiar to those of us in Illinois who remember the Governor Bruce Rauner/Speaker Michael Madigan disputes in 2015-17.¹
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¹ See here and here.

Illinois Might Have an Emergency, But Don’t Expect the Legislature To Do Anything

The President of the Illinois State Senate, Don Harmon, a Democrat from Oak Park, was really excited about the election results.  Even with the defeat of the Fair Tax, he said, in a comment in our local newspaper, the Wednesday Journal, “We did it.”  Now, however, with Illinois facing a financial crisis because of the defeat of the Fair Tax and facing another coronavirus wave, Senator Harmon is saying, “We can’t do it”; i.e., the legislature can’t meet for its fall session.  It wouldn’t be safe, he says, with the virus surging in Springfield and around the state.

Doctors and nurses are working.  Police officers and firefighters are there for us.  And grocery stores and drug stores are open, and their workers are helping us with our food and medicine.  But the state legislature meeting to pass laws to deal with these crises?  It’s too dangerous.¹

Hey, Springfield: We Don’t Trust You

There are lots of stories in this election, some of which have not yet been fully told.  But there is one thing we know in Illinois: Illinois voters don’t trust Springfield.  Governor Pritzker spent millions supporting an amendment to the Illinois constitution allowing a progressive income tax.  The supporters said, over and over, it would only affect the rich, just the top 3%.  But they failed.  

What is interesting is why they failed.  The opponents of the amendment did not argue the merits of a flat tax versus a graduated tax.  Rather, they just asked Illinoisans whether they could trust the politicians in Springfield to limit the “Fair Tax” to just the top 3%, as they promised. 

Illinois Government: “Fair Tax” or Not, What Comes Next?

On Tuesday (or so), we will know the results on the Illinois “Fair Tax” proposal.  More interesting, however, will be what happens next year in Springfield.  Regardless of whether the Fair Tax passes or not, Illinois taxes will be going up.  The state has had billions of dollars of unpaid bills for a decade (don’t try this at home) and an unpaid pension deficit of either $137 billion or $240 billion (depending on whom you believe).

Governor J.B. Pritzker sent his Lieutenant Governor out last month to say (threaten-?) that if the Fair Tax was not passed, the flat rate state income state would go up from 4.95% to 5.95%, and the Governor said it would be the Republicans’ fault.  So, taxes are going up.  The real question is what happens after the increase.  Will the legislature and the governor use the extra money to finally pay the unpaid bills and pay down the unfunded pension liability?  Or will they all of a sudden say that Illinois has lots of unmet needs (besides paying its bills and funding its pension promises) and that the money needs to be used for new programs and expanded benefits?

Honesty In Taxes: We All Have to Pay

There is a trend in tax increase proposals around the world.  Voters in Illinois this November will vote on a “Fair Tax,” i.e., a constitutional amendment to allow the Illinois legislature to pass a progressive income tax.  The key selling point in the campaign for the amendment, other than the name that the PR people gave to it is that only 3% of the people in Illinois will pay a higher tax.  Everybody else will pay less.

In New Zealand, which had an election last weekend, the Green Party proposed a wealth tax, but said it would only apply to the top 6% of people.  The center-left Labour Party rejected the wealth tax idea, but they did propose increasing the tax on income above NZ$180,000, which includes about 2% of taxpayers, from 33% to 39%.

What the Fair Tax Needs Is New Politicians in Springfield

We are told that the solution to the problems in Springfield is the “Fair Tax.”  I would suggest that what we need more than a new tax is new politicians.  Illinois’s main problem isn’t that the state doesn’t have enough money.  It’s that the people in Springfield don’t know how to use the money they already have – and haven’t known how to use it for years.  Which is why we are in the mess we are in.

Giving more money to the politicians we have now will not result in better programs and more things done well.  It will, rather, result in more of what we already have: Poorly-run government that spends too much and accomplishes too little.

Donald Trump’s Federal Income Taxes

Media reports are that Donald Trump, in spite of supposedly having a net worth in the billions, paid no federal income taxes in ten of the last fifteen years and paid only $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and the same amount in 2017.  Two comments:

First, if President Trump has followed the tax laws and has not engaged in any scams or lies in order to reduce his federal income taxes,¹ then I have no problem with what he paid.  In that case, the problem is with the Internal Revenue Code, not President Trump’s individual returns.  Democrats who are appalled that President Trump paid no taxes should be telling us how the tax code should be changed.  And I am not talking about some campaign press release or position paper.  I’m talking about detailed legislation.  They should propose a bill.  They should vote on the bill and pass it.  They should tell us what they want to do by actually doing it.  The House of Representatives would be a great place to do this.