The View from Right Field

“How Do You Solve a Problem Like Korea” (to tune of “Maria” from “The Sound of Music”)

Except, of course, I am referring just to North Korea, not all of Korea; and except that, while North Korea is a problem, it is not Maria.  There was a solution for Maria: sending her to be governess at Captain von Trapp’s house.  As for North Korea, consider the situation.

1.  North Korea is an economic disaster. Earlier this month, Kim Jong Un compared the country’s worsening economic situation to the 1990s famine that resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Floods last summer and US sanctions contributed to the problems, as has North Korea’s closing of its borders with the world, including even China, because of Covid-19.  But mostly, it’s the system, both economic and dictatorial.  Several weeks ago, there was a picture of people from the Russian embassy using a handcar to leave the country.

South Korea. North Korea. Friends and Enemies. Or Is it Vice Versa?

Donald Trump’s policy on Korea continued in the normal way this past week: giving concessions to the North and making absurd demands on the South.  I assume the concessions to the North are because President Trump “loves” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and thinks that reaching an agreement with the North will cement his reputation as the greatest President ever – though I also assume President Trump already thinks he is.  The demands on the South are because President Trump always thinks somebody is ripping us [him] off and doesn’t understand that foreign policy, and peace, is not a real estate deal or casino contract.  More:

First, North Korea.  Earlier this week, the U.S. and South Korea postponed a major training exercise that was set to begin on Monday.  Defense Secretary Mark Esper said it was “an act of good will … and advancement of peace” but it was not a concession to the North.  As if anybody believes that.  The U.S.  and South Korea cancelled defense exercises last year and nothing happened.  Actually, that is not entirely true.  When we had denuclearization talks with North Korea in October, the first meeting in seven months, North Korea walked out, accusing the U.S. of not making enough concessions.  So, we postponed the military exercises this month.  But it wasn’t a concession.  (If you believe that, I’ve got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.)  And, according to The Wall Street Journal, “A few hours after [Defense Secretary] Esper’s remarks, North Korea’s foreign ministry said the regime’s will to maintain diplomacy with the U.S. was shrinking.”  The art of the deal, huh?

When Donald Meets Kim [Jong Un]

As Donald Trump heads for his second meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea, Robert Zoellick, former President of the World Bank and State Department official in both the George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush administrations (as well as serving in the Treasury Department under Ronald Reagan), wrote in The Wall Street Journal on “How to Negotiate With Kim Jong Un.”  Here are the five steps Mr. Zoellick suggests:

“The first step must be to address the danger of warfare on the Korean Peninsula. … The North Korean army is too big.  Negotiators must reduce both its size and its capacity for surprise attack.  The goal should be to equalize the North and South Korean militaries at smaller levels.

The 1992 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which helped end the Cold War in Europe, offers examples of terms.

George H.W. Bush, RIP

I have written a lot about George Herbert Walker Bush over the years, and while I am saddened by his passing, I am sure that he, and his family, are glad he is with Barbara once again.  Our longest presidential marriage is an example for us all.  As was his sense of duty, honor, and decency, something that is too often missing in politics today.

But George H.W. Bush was more than a good man.  He was a good president.  Many of the obituaries talk about how President Bush went back on his pledge at the 1988 Republican Convention: “Read my lips, no new taxes.”  What they didn’t mention is why President Bush felt he needed to agree to a tax increase in the fall of 1990.  In October of 1990, there was a short government shutdown over the Columbus Day weekend.  By then, however, and following on President Bush’s statement of August of 1990 that Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait “will not stand,” U.S. troops were already beginning to deploy to the Middle East.  President Bush explained his decision to agree to a tax increase in order to avoid a further government shutdown as follows: “When push came to shove and our troops were moving overseas, we needed a fully functioning government.  I simply had to hammer out a compromise to keep the government open ….”¹  This is obviously an approach to government, and responsibility, that not many people in Washington, at either end of Pennsylvania Avenue, seem to have today.

If Only Nixon Could Go To China, Can Only Donald Trump Solve North Korea?

If, as the old Vulcan proverb says, only Nixon could go to China, is it possible only Donald Trump can solve the problem of North Korea’s nuclear weapons?  In a joint statement with Kim Jong Un, President Trump has agreed, in exchange for North Korea’s promise to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” to suspend joint military exercises with South Korea.

If Barack Obama had agreed to that, which I don’t think he would have, I would have criticized him for naiveté in the extreme.  We have given up the right to conduct military exercises with South Korea, in exchange for a promise that North Korean leaders have made before – and broken every time.  Why is this time different?  Is it because President Trump has a special bond with Kim Jong Un?  Like he said he had with President Emmanuel Macron of France.

Threatening to “Totally Destroy North Korea” Is Just Dumb

At the United Nations yesterday, Donald Trump threatened to “totally destroy North Korea” if the United States “is forced to defend itself or tis allies.”  I am not an expert on international law or the laws of war, but talking about “totally destroy[ing] North Korea” does not sound appropriate to me.  It seems to me to be against the laws of war and against international law.

I realize some people might think the idea of “laws” applying to war sounds silly, but it isn’t.  There are such rules, and they matter.  And among them is that you don’t indiscriminately target civilians, which sounds like what President Trump was threatening yesterday.¹ 

Rule No. 1: Don’t Mock Somebody With Nuclear Weapons

Sunday morning, Donald Trump came up with a new nickname for Kim Jong Un.  As he did during the campaign last year (remember “Little Marco,” “Lyin’ Ted,” and “Crooked Hillary,” etc.), President Trump has decided it is somehow a good idea to give Kim Jong Un a nickname: Rocket Man.  Except this is a little different.

Maybe President Trump thought the nicknames during the campaign were cute or funny.  Maybe he thought they were a way to get under the skin of his opponents and get them to make a mistake.  Maybe he was just trying to get publicity and free media.  I thought it was disrespectful and lowered both him and the office he was seeking.

If North Korea Tests Yet Another ICBM

Reports are that North Korea will be test launching yet another ICBM.  The question, of course, is what should the United States do.  David Sanger lays out some of the options.

As noted, the “shooting it down once it is launched” option sounds great – except what if it doesn’t work.  And it’s not just a matter of who would win a resulting propaganda war.  It’s more a matter of sending the wrong signals to North Korea.  A failure might give the North Koreans, or at least Kim Jong Un, the wrong idea as to what he might be able to do.  Better that we keep developing our anti-missile defenses, and forcing Kim Jong Un to think they probably will work.

While it may be hard to decide among the courses of action Mr. Sanger lists, there are things that are easy to decide.  Here are some of them:

Donald Trump on North Korea and the Size of Our Moscow Embassy

I was thinking of writing a post about Donald Trump’s statements concerning North Korea.  Obviously, a good part of the media (even the non-FAKE NEWS media) has been indicating some concern over what they see as the belligerence of President Trump’s comments.  I was going to note, on the other hand, Ann Althouse’s post in which she compared President Trump’s comments with what Harry Truman said in 1945: If the Japanese didn’t surrender, “they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth.”  (He was right.)  And with what Bill Clinton said in 1993:

“[D]uring a speech in the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea [. President Clinton said,] that if Pyongyang ever used nuclear weapons, ‘it would be the end of their country.’”

Dealing With North Korea: Richard Nixon-Style

Failing with respect to North Korea is a pattern with recent presidents.  Bill Clinton signed an Agreed Framework with the father of Kim Jong Un.  North Korea violated it.  George W. Bush seemed to be getting a little somewhere with financial sanctions, but then we backed off in order to open negotiations with North Korea.  The negotiations didn’t work.  Neither did Barack Obama’s strategic patience. 

On the other hand, if one of the reasons North Korea is developing nuclear weapons is because they are a little paranoid, then I am not sure all of the Trump administration's threats and tweets are helping the situation.  If we’re not careful, we might scare Kim Jong Un into doing something first, which would not be good.  Please understand I am not saying we shouldn’t do anything.  I’m just saying that maybe we could do it a little more quietly.