The View from Right Field

What’s the Matter With China?

As we look at all of the problems in the United States and wonder how we are going to deal with them, perhaps we should give a thought to a country with just as many problems: China.  Recently, I have been watching shows and reading articles about the economic problems in China.  Experts and pundits have been asking what China should do about economic growth, the stagnate real estate sector, youth un- and under-employment, deflation, etc.   And then they go on to offer all kinds of proposed policies and solutions, most of them straight out of standard Western economics theory. 

Which means they won’t be implemented because they miss the main point.  The most important thing to Chinese President Xi Jinping is not solving this problem or that.  It is keeping control.  It's maintaining, and strengthening, the power and role of the Chinese Communist Party – and his own control over the CCP.  President Xi may be a committed Communist and dedicated Marxist-Leninist, but more importantly, he wants to keep control. 

How Dumb Does J.B. Pritzker Think Illinois Voters Are?

In his proposed budget for 2024-25, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker is proposing to eliminate the 1% state sales tax on food.  The Governor and the legislature did this before, on a temporary basis, when they were all running for election in 2022.  This time, however, the repeal will be permanent – except.

As is normal with Illinois government, there is always an “except”.  When the state got rid of this tax temporarily in 2022-23, the state made up the revenue that local governments lost because of the suspension.  The state did this because the money from this tax goes to local government.

“If you want to be good at this kind of job, you have to be willing to lose it”

Paul Ryan said this in 2011 when he was trying to reform entitlement spending.  Ultimately, he couldn’t get it done, though he tried and he didn’t let the possibility of losing his job stop him from trying.  He did get significant tax reforms passed in 2017, maybe not as many as he would have liked, but a lot more than anybody else had accomplished in a long time or has accomplished since.  In 2018, then-House Speaker Ryan decided to retire.  Perhaps he felt he couldn’t “be good at this kind of job” anymore. I don’t know.  In any case, he was good at it while he was there.

Unfortunately, we don’t have enough people in the Republican Party like this anymore.  Instead, they are voting against aid to Ukraine, which would help our national security, too, and voting for silly motions to impeach the Secretary of Homeland Security because they don’t like President Biden’s border policies.  It doesn’t matter whether they are doing this because they are scared of Donald Trump or because they think they would lose a primary to the people who tend to vote in primaries.  If they are more worried about losing their job than they are about being good at it, then maybe they should find a new job, which they could be good at.

Avoiding “The Coming Constitutional Crisis of 2024”

Supposedly the voters don’t want a repeat of Trump-Biden (or is it Biden-Trump) in November.  I wonder.  While most voters don’t want Trump, it might be that a majority of Republicans do – or at least they think he is inevitable.  As for Biden, while his overall approval ratings aren’t good, it could be that a majority of Democrats want him, especially if the Republican alternative is Trump. 

But, if it is Biden and Trump again in November, well, I wrote about “The Coming Constitutional Crisis of 2024” last December.  As I said then, and I think it is pretty clear, if Trump loses a November rematch, he and many of his supporters won’t accept it.  It won’t be pretty.

On the other hand, if Biden loses, while he might accept it, I wonder about his supporters.  I raised this question in December and talked about it even more in January: If Trump is as big a threat to democracy as Biden says, how can Biden’s supporters accept him? 

Who Lost Ukraine? While Biden Isn’t Good, Republicans Seem to Be Worse.

Back in the 1950s, one of the big political issues was “Who Lost China?”  The Chinese Communists had won the civil war against the Nationalists in 1949 (Chiang Kai-shek retreating to Taiwan), and then North Korea invaded South Korea in 1950.  The Republicans spent a good part of the 1950s accusing Harry Truman (and Dean Acheson, George Marshall, et al) of “losing China”. 

I am not going to go into that debate.  What I am going to do is suggest we think about what the answer to “Who lost Ukraine” might be if we don’t start getting weapons and ammunition to Ukraine and, ultimately, they can’t hold on.  President Biden started out pretty good, but he hasn’t been nearly as good as he could have been.  We have wrung our hands about fears of escalation way too much,\; we have not delivered the weapons we needed to as quickly as we should have; and we have put too many limits on the use of the weapons we have delivered.

The Economy Is Growing and the Deficit Is Up, So Let’s Cut Taxes

The federal deficit for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 (i.e., October through December of 2023) was $507 billion, so what did the Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives do?  They passed a tax cut, of course.¹  They can’t agree to help Ukraine beat Russia (which would help the US, too) or do anything about the situation¹ of hundreds of thousands of people illegally crossing the border each month.  But cutting taxes when we have record (or near-record) deficits during a period of a growing economy and full employment; that’s something they can do.  Because, after all, there is an election coming up and spending our grandchildren’s money (they are the ones who are going to have to pay for this) is fun – and the best way to get reelected.
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¹ By a 357-70 vote; a true partisan accomplishment.
₂ I call it a “situation”, instead of a “crisis”, because many people don’t call it a “crisis” until the migrants (or whatever you call them) show up in their city.

Biden’s Foreign Policy Just Isn’t Working – And It’s Not Deterring Anybody

At one point during the first Trump administration¹, I gave up (or at least cut back) on complaining about what he was doing both because it was becoming too time consuming and because the Democratic alternatives weren’t any better.  Well, I think I am just about there on Joe Biden’s foreign policy.  It’s bad, and I have no reason to think Trump 2.0 would be any better.

It has now been four days since an Iran proxy group killed three U.S. soldiers with a drone attack on a base we have in Jordan.  It may be that the Biden administration already has an appropriate response in process, and we don’t know about it yet.  I hope so.²  Because, if we want these attacks to stop, we need to respond in a really big way.  Iranian proxies, and others, have been attacking us for months.  Before Sunday, we were able to knock the drones or missiles down or they only injured people, they didn’t kill them.  So we didn’t respond (at least very much).  We just said: (i) if you kill any of our people (as opposed to merely injuring them), we’ll respond; (ii) we don’t want to escalate or to widen the war/conflict/tensions; and (iii) we don’t want World War III.  Which apparently didn’t scare anybody and probably encouraged some groups to keep attacking us  - because they did.

Why Should Anybody Trust Us? The Joe Biden Edition – #2

I wrote posts with this title (or at least this idea) during the Obama administration (here and here) and the Trump administration (here).  (Since this blog only started in April 2006, I might not have written one about the George W. Bush administration.) 

I also wrote one about Joe Biden’s abrupt abandonment of Afghanistan.¹  We had allies there with us, but President Biden decided to leave without consulting them.  He wanted to leave (he had wanted to leave since Obama’s first term), and he wasn’t going to let facts or friends, or anything else, get in the way of what he wanted to do.

And so, we have Friday’s decision to halt the permitting of terminals for exporting liquified natural gas.  President Biden claimed it was about the climate crisis, but it was really about the political crisis.  He wants to get reelected.  After 32 years, he finally got to be President and he doesn’t want to give it up – and he doesn’t much care what he has to do to keep it.

If Trump Is a Threat to Democracy, What If He Wins?

President Biden is campaigning hard on the idea that former President Trump is a threat to democracy.  I understand why he is doing this.  President Biden does not have great approval ratings, so he has to play to his strength – which is how bad his supporters think former President Trump is.  Attacking Trump as a threat to democracy is not going to sway many Trump supporters, but it might help a little on the margin if Trump says something crazier than normal for even him or if he gets convicted.  That might sway a few people in the middle.  Also, attacking Trump as a threat to democracy might motivate Biden’s supporters to get and vote.  The two of those together might be enough for Biden to beat Trump again.

The question I have, however, is this: If Biden spends the whole campaign talking about Trump being a threat to democracy, what happens if Trump wins the election?  It’s a long way to November, and polls this early don’t mean much, but they do indicate Trump and Biden are just about tied (Trump is actually a little ahead in some polls).  And Trump doesn’t need to win the popular vote; he just needs to win the Electoral College.  He won the Electoral College in 2016 while trailing Hillary Clinton by almost three million votes.  In 2020, he lost to Biden by seven million votes and still got very close in the Electoral College.  He could lose the popular vote in 2024 and still win the Electoral College.  And based on what the polls say, he could even win the popular vote.  If he does that, the Electoral College might not even be close.

37th Annual Cubs Convention – January 12-14, 2024

Back to the Cubs Convention after a four-year break.  I went in 2020, just before Covid.  There were no conventions in 2021 or 2022 (because of stupid Covid), and then I had a little issue last year.  So, it took a while, but I am finally up to 30 Conventions (out of 37; I missed the first four, then 2005, 2017, and last year). 

It was a lot different this year than it had been recently, but that was fine – and great – because Tad and Ruth were coming (along with Ross and Emily, of course). 

We watched Friday night’s Opening Ceremonies and “Off the Mound with Ryan Dempster” on Marquee at home.  It was easier and cheaper (didn’t have to drive; didn’t have to pay to park).  Plus you had a really good view and you did not have to sit/stand for an hour or more before the Opening Ceremonies started.  Wayne Messmer sang the Anthem, which is great!