The View from Right Field

People Thought Trump Couldn’t Win in 2016. I’m Afraid They Are Thinking It Again.

In May of 2016, I wrote a post I titled “One Reason It Would Almost Be Fun If Donald Trump Won in November”.  I wrote about a conversation I had with a Democrat who wasn’t concerned about then-candidate Trump becoming the Republican nominee:

“[Trump] might win the Republican nomination, they thought, but he wouldn’t win in November because then Democrats would be voting, too.  People who vote in Republican primaries might be vote for Donald Trump, but Democrats would never do that.” 

The Great January 6 “What-If”

The House of Representatives’ January 6 Committee¹ has issued its report.  I’m not going to go into its conclusions.  What Donald Trump did on January 6, and what he did not do that he should have done,  was appalling, but then I knew that on January 6.  As I have said before,² the only question after January 6 was: what was the best way to make sure then-President, now former President, Trump went away and never came back again.  But that is not the question for this post. 

Rather, the “what-if” question for this post is this: What if the Capitol had had better security on January 6?  What if there had been enough police officers, and national guard personnel, etc., so that the protestors, aka rioters (aka insurrectionists or whatever you want to call them), had not been able to break into the U.S. Capitol building that day?  In one way, things would have been the same.  Then-President Trump would have still tried to convince Mike Pence to put off the counting of the electoral votes (or whatever other cockamamie scheme then-President Trump was pushing).  Some idiot Republicans would have objected to the counting of the electoral votes.³  And Vice President Pence would have told them all to, in effect, “pound sand.” 

On the Special Counsel for Donald Trump

I let out a big sigh when I read that Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed a special counsel to investigate whether Donald Trump should be indicted with respect to the events of January 6 and with respect to confidential documents he took to Mar-a-Lago.  I sighed because, at least to me, the appointment means former President Trump will likely be indicted, and I can’t see that as a good thing.

I don’t know whether former President Trump broke any laws with respect to January 6 or the Mar-a-Lago documents.  I don’t know all the facts, and I don’t know the specifics of the laws.  But, ultimately, I don’t think former President Trump should be indicted because I don’t think it will help the country.  I want former President Trump gone.  And I think the best way to get him gone is to just ignore him.  Don’t talk about him.  Stop giving him the respect of attention.

Building LNG Terminals; Counting Votes: Germany vs United States

The Financial Times reported today that Germany has completed the construction of an LNG import terminal in Wilhelmshaven (on the North Sea in northwest Germany) in 200 days.¹  The terminal, along with another in Brunsbüttel, which is to be completed by the end of the year, will facilitate the importation of LNG this winter to replace Russian gas. 

Getting this done is little month than six months is amazing.  One wonders how long it would take in the United States.  Probably years, if it could be done at all.  In the United States, 200 days would probably wouldn’t get you through the first round of pleadings and objections in the first of many lawsuits, let along getting a permit or even starting construction. 

When the Dog Actually Catches the Bus. Republicans on Obamacare, Roe v. Wade, and Now 2023

It’s an old joke: Dogs are always chasing buses (among other things).  But do they have any idea what they would do if they actually caught it?

Which is what happened to Republicans on both Obamacare and Roe v. Wade.¹  After Obamacare passed, the Republicans had a clear position on what they would do if they got back in power: Repeal it.  It was simple, and the House, which flipped to the Republicans in the 2010 election, voted to repeal Obamacare a number of times.  Of course, it was easy to do.  Until the 2014 election, the Democrats still controlled the Senate, so no repeal passed by the House would ever become law and it didn’t matter much about the details.

If Republicans Win on Tuesday, Will They Lose in 2024?

Pollsters and prognosticators are saying the Republicans will win the House, and maybe even the Senate, on Tuesday.  But the question is: If the Republicans do win on Tuesday, even just the House, what will they do with that victory?  Will they come up with programs to deal with our problems?  Will they pass a budget that makes sense and do it on time?  Will they actually pass legislation to try to accomplish something?¹ 

Or will they use their power to investigate Hunter Biden and his laptop?  Will they push even more investigations into Donald Trump’s constant claims about how the 2020 elections was stolen from him?²  Will they try to impeach Joe Biden? 

Why I Hope Republicans Will Mostly Win on November 8

I vote for Republicans almost all the time, so why should anybody be surprise by the headline of this post?  Probably no reason other than I haven’t voted for a Republican candidate for President since Mitt Romney in 2012¹ and the Republicans have some truly abysmal candidates this year.

Some swing voters are understandably hesitant to vote Republican this year because the Republican Party is in such disarray and, as I said, it has some really bad candidates.  Consider Herschel Walker, running for Senate in Georgia.  And others, including Darren Bailey, Republican candidate for governor here in Illinois.  Many of these people won because of Donald Trump’s endorsement or believe his lie about the 2020 presidential election being stolen – or both.

Winning Elections in the Age of Trump

In Friday’s Wall Street Journal, Kimberley Strassel wrote about elections across the country, from Washington State’s Senate to gubernatorial elections in Kansas and Florida where Republicans are pushing education issues.  In Washington, long-time incumbent Patty Murray is ahead of her Republican challenger by only three points with Seattle teachers having recently voted to go on strike.

Ms. Strassel says that that “[a]ny Republican who isn’t making criticism of failed Covid education decisions – and promises of school choice and parental involvement – a lead message is committing an election foul.”  The problem is that Donald Trump doesn’t agree.  Former President Trump tells us there is only one issue: the stolen election of 2020.  And far too many Republicans agree with him.

Questions Re Joe Biden’s Student Loan Bribe

Obviously, President Biden’s student debt cancellation plan is a campaign bribe.  That’s not a question.  My question is: how is it supposed to work?  Is the idea that the people getting the bribe (i.e., getting some part of their student loan forgiven) will vote Democratic in November, as a thank you to the President, when they would have otherwise voted Republican/other?   Or is it that people will come out to vote, once again, as a thank you for the bribe, when they otherwise would not have voted?

Also, I wonder what the expected return is on the bribe.  In other words, what’s the cost of each additional vote, whether from somebody who would have otherwise voted Republican/other or somebody who wouldn’t have voted at all but for the bribe?  Given that the Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that the President’s plan could cost up to $300 billion, it would seem that these could be some pretty expensive votes.   

“US Politics Is a Road Paved in Gold for Consultants”

This is a letter to the editor published in the Financial Times on August 23.  The letter was slightly edited, mostly for the better, except in one case: At the end of the first sentence, instead of “the ignorant”, I would have preferred “those who sound ignorant to them” (or something like that).  Such wording much better reflects my point – and, I think, the point Edward Luce was making in his column.

“I agree with Edward Luce that there is ‘electoral gold’ for the right in the contempt America’s cultural elites show towards the ignorant.  (‘The truth that set Cheney free’, Opinion, August 18)  However, one should not ignore the regular gold.  There is money in electoral outrage, for both candidates and perhaps especially their consultants.