The View from Right Field

If You Don’t Want Trump 2.0, You Need to Do Something About the Border

“Wilders’ victory is a warning for Europe” was the headline on the editorial on the Dutch election in Saturday’s Financial Times.¹  The editorial concluded: “[M]ainstream parties have to find credible ways to respond to voter concerns over immigration or they risk leaving the field open to extremists.”

In the United States the question of immigration and “the border” are tied up with aid to Ukraine.  The Associated Press reported yesterday: 

“Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has said the ‘best way’ to ensure GOP support for Ukraine is for Biden and Democrats to accept border policy changes that would limit the flow of migrants across the border with Mexico. …

“A Trump win would change the world” – and Not for the Better.

Martin Wolf wrote in Wednesday’s Financial Times about his concerns, both for U.S. domestic policy and for the world as a whole, with respect to a second Donald Trump administration.¹  For example:

“[E]mbrace by the US of a man … that [has] repudiated the central norm of liberal democracy would dishearten those who believe in it and encourage despots and their lackeys everywhere. …

The mixture of this despair with Trumps’s avowedly transactional approach would weaken, if not destroy, the trust on which current US alliances are based.”

 I understand Mr. Wolf’s concerns.²  He is right that, in his first term, former President Trump initially picked traditional Republicans as advisers for foreign policy and defense, which slowed former President Trump down.  A Trump 2.0 administration would start with Trumpian true-believers, a scary thought.

The Circular Firing Squad That Is the House Republicans Has Fired – And I Am Not Sure Why I Should Care

A group of eight House Republicans, uniting with the House Democratic party, has voted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy out of office.  And I am wondering why I should care.  Mr. McCarthy gave them the right to do this as part of his deal with them back in January in order to become speaker.  It was probably just a matter of time until they did it.  And now they have.  So what?

Until the House figures out a way to elect a new speaker, it cannot do anything.  That may not be a minus, at least for a while.  After all, as Gideon John Tucker said in 1866, while serving as a judge in New York County (i.e., Manhattan), “No man's life, liberty or property are safe while the Legislature is in session.”  So if Congress isn’t able to do anything for a while, maybe it’s not so bad.

People Thought Trump Couldn’t Win in 2016. I’m Afraid They Are Thinking It Again.

In May of 2016, I wrote a post I titled “One Reason It Would Almost Be Fun If Donald Trump Won in November”.  I wrote about a conversation I had with a Democrat who wasn’t concerned about then-candidate Trump becoming the Republican nominee:

“[Trump] might win the Republican nomination, they thought, but he wouldn’t win in November because then Democrats would be voting, too.  People who vote in Republican primaries might be vote for Donald Trump, but Democrats would never do that.” 

Trump Being Bad Doesn’t Make Biden Good

As with my last post, this is something I have said before that needs to be said again: Just because Donald Trump was not a good president (how’s that for understatement) and would be even worse in a second term (see, inter alia, here and here), that does not mean Joe Biden is doing a good job.  He’s not.  In President Biden’s case, I am not talking about his character (though some have done so).  I am talking about his policies.  Here is a short list of some of them (there are more):

• While supply chain disruptions from Vladimir Putin’s renewed invasion of Ukraine may have added to inflation, our inflation started long before Putin’s invasion.  It was a result of the huge Covid stimulus package in 2021 that we did not need.  The stimulus package in 2020 was necessary.  The one in 2021 was not.  All that money had a big role in the inflation that followed.  Some may say that people needed the money, but people always want free money from the government.

If Trump Supporters Won’t Change Their Minds, Just Talk Slower and Louder

It is amazing to a lot of people that Donald Trump actually has a pretty good chance of getting re-elected President in November 2024.  If you haven’t been paying attention, and there are a lot more enjoyable things to think about than politics, you may not realize former President Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination next year.  With Joe Biden’s approval ratings so low and the possibility of a recession later this year or early next year being relatively high, former President Trump’s chances of winning the election next year may be even higher than the one in three that, per The Economist, the betting markets are giving for a Trump victory. 

How can this be, some people will ask.  Large numbers of Americans can’t imagine how former President Trump could be re-elected or how anybody could even vote for him.  Which is exactly the problem.  Because, in order to convince people who would otherwise vote for Trump to not vote for him, you have to understand why they would vote for him in the first place.  If you literally¹ cannot imagine how people could vote for him, you probably can’t convince people not to.

Biden Announces for Reelection; Trump Is Already Running. Sigh.

Joe Biden announced his reelection bid in a video released on Tuesday¹, saying “It’s time to finish the job.”  The snarky response would be: Well, it makes sense that you need more time.  Things take longer when you get old.  

Others have already announced their campaign for 2024.  Former President Trump may have been the first, announcing in November of last year, though I am not sure whether he is running for election in November, 2024 or he is still trying to get the “stolen” election of November of 2020 “corrected” so he can take over right now. 

On the Special Counsel for Donald Trump

I let out a big sigh when I read that Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed a special counsel to investigate whether Donald Trump should be indicted with respect to the events of January 6 and with respect to confidential documents he took to Mar-a-Lago.  I sighed because, at least to me, the appointment means former President Trump will likely be indicted, and I can’t see that as a good thing.

I don’t know whether former President Trump broke any laws with respect to January 6 or the Mar-a-Lago documents.  I don’t know all the facts, and I don’t know the specifics of the laws.  But, ultimately, I don’t think former President Trump should be indicted because I don’t think it will help the country.  I want former President Trump gone.  And I think the best way to get him gone is to just ignore him.  Don’t talk about him.  Stop giving him the respect of attention.

When the Dog Actually Catches the Bus. Republicans on Obamacare, Roe v. Wade, and Now 2023

It’s an old joke: Dogs are always chasing buses (among other things).  But do they have any idea what they would do if they actually caught it?

Which is what happened to Republicans on both Obamacare and Roe v. Wade.¹  After Obamacare passed, the Republicans had a clear position on what they would do if they got back in power: Repeal it.  It was simple, and the House, which flipped to the Republicans in the 2010 election, voted to repeal Obamacare a number of times.  Of course, it was easy to do.  Until the 2014 election, the Democrats still controlled the Senate, so no repeal passed by the House would ever become law and it didn’t matter much about the details.

If Republicans Win on Tuesday, Will They Lose in 2024?

Pollsters and prognosticators are saying the Republicans will win the House, and maybe even the Senate, on Tuesday.  But the question is: If the Republicans do win on Tuesday, even just the House, what will they do with that victory?  Will they come up with programs to deal with our problems?  Will they pass a budget that makes sense and do it on time?  Will they actually pass legislation to try to accomplish something?¹ 

Or will they use their power to investigate Hunter Biden and his laptop?  Will they push even more investigations into Donald Trump’s constant claims about how the 2020 elections was stolen from him?²  Will they try to impeach Joe Biden?