The View from Right Field

Drone Attack on Moscow; "Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo"

Several more drones attacked Moscow on Tuesday.¹  Ukraine has denied that the drones are theirs, though I would certainly have no problem if Ukraine was sending drones to attack Moscow.  Russia is attacking Kiev and so many other cities in Ukraine with rockets, etc.  Why shouldn’t Ukraine do the same?

But regardless of the actual physical effects of the drone attack, one wonders about any psychological effects of the attacks.  Which, of course, brings to mind the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo in April, 1942.  The story of the raid was told in the book Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo and the film of the same name that came out in 1944.  (Back in the late 1950s or early 1960s, I read a version of the book that was aimed at young adults.)

Ukraine and the Failure of Sanctions – One More Time

I’m sorry to keep harping on the failure of sanctions, but it’s important because they are not working, or at least not doing enough, in Russia’s war against Ukraine.  As I mentioned here, there were two articles in the Financial Times last week about how sanctions against Russia are being violated and how they are aren’t getting the job done. 

There was another article in yesterday’s FT¹, this one about the “ghost trade” in dual-use goods.  Dual-use goods are products that can be used for civilian purposes and for military or intelligence purposes.  The ghost trade is when goods are ordered by a company in one country and never show up there.  What is happening, among other things, is that the dual-use goods are ordered by companies in places such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia and are shipped, from EU countries, through Russia to get to their destination,  But the goods are never arriving.  They are disappearing.

The Feel-Good Purpose of Sanctions

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post asking: “Can Even More Sanctions Beat Russia?”  My answer was no.  More evidence to support this view came last week in both the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. 

The FT had two articles.  One was about a Russian spy network that is buying machine tools and microchips Russia needs to maintain its military-industrial complex.¹  While people from Washington are traveling to western Europe to talk about tightening enforcement of sanctions, the point is the Russians are still able to get around them.

Whose Drones Are Attacking the Kremlin and Why Can’t Russia Stop Them?

In a week of big news (for example, Matt Mervis made his major league debut with the Cubs yesterday), one of the more bizarre stories was the “attack” on the Kremlin by two drones.  The Russians blamed Ukraine, accusing them of trying to assassinate Vladimir Putin.

Whether is what actually happened or whether it was a Russian “false flag” operation or something else is completely unclear.¹  In any case, what I don’t understand is why the Russians would accuse Ukraine of flying these drones to Moscow.  If I were Vladimir Putin, I would be embarrassed if the Ukrainians could fly two drones all the way to the Kremlin.  Instead of trumpeting it to the world, I would be trying to hide the fact.  What does this say about Russia’s air defenses if two slow moving drones can get all the way to Moscow and crash into the Kremlin? 

Can Even More Sanctions Beat Russia?

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the United States is proposing to the other G7 countries that they replace the current sector-by-sector regime of sanctions against Russia with a ban on all exports to Russia except for a few exemptions.¹  The EU and Japan are pushing back, but they trade more with Russia, so this kind of a ban would cost them more than it would the United States.

The frustrating part of this proposal is that it’s just another attempt to try to beat Putin with sanctions.  Too many people in our government seem to think Russia can be defeated in Ukraine if we just impose one more set of sanctions, if we just limit a few more things we sell to Russia or cut back a little more on what we buy from Russia.  It seems so easy – and cheap. Just impose enough sanctions and poof, Russia loses.  Except it doesn’t work that way, and it certainly hasn’t stopped Vladimir Putin so far.

NATO: And Finland Makes 30*

Finland officially joined NATO on yesterday, becoming the 30th 31st* member of the alliance.  And yesterday, a Kremlin spokesman said that Finland’s membership was an “aggravation of the situation” and “an encroachment on Russia’s security.”¹  I suppose it is true that Finland’s membership did aggravate Vladimir Putin.  As for it encroaching Russia’s security, it might have done so if Russia’s security is defined as being able to invade any country it wants to.

Also, Russia’s Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, said that it was Finland’s membership was an “anti-Russian policy,”¹ which is actually 100% true.  There is no way Finland would have joined NATO if Russia had not renewed its invasion of Ukraine in February of last year.  Finland didn’t join NATO so it could attack Russia; Finland joined NATO so Russia wouldn’t attack it.  So, yes, it was an anti-Russia policy.  Or at least, an anti-Vladimir Putin policy.

If Russia wants to stops its neighbors from joining NATO because they are scared of Russia, maybe Russia should stop doing things that scare them.
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¹ Henry Foy and Anastasia Stognei, “Kremlin vows retaliation after Finland signs up to ‘anti-Russian’ Nato alliance,” Financial Times, April 5, 2023.
* Oops, 31st member.  I forgot about North Macedonia joining in 2020

We Need to Give Ukraine More. Now.

Joe Biden is doing a pretty decent job in Ukraine, but he could be doing better.  In fact, if we want Ukraine to prevail, we need to be doing better.  Americans are still supporting Ukraine – so far.  But how long will that last?  Americans lose interest.  We get tired, our attention lags, and we abandon our commitments.  So those of us who want Ukraine to prevail need to push to get it done now.

This is especially true with Donald Trump lurking in the background.  Who knows what he would do if he were elected again.  Or if some Republican gets nominated who tries to appeal to what he/she sees at the populism/isolationism of the Trumpian base.¹  Not to mention, how long will progressive Democrats support aid to Ukraine if we have a Republican president, instead of a Democrat?

An Operation Warp Speed for Weapons and Ammunition?

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, while in Brussels earlier this week, that the West hopes better training will help Ukrainian forces to use less ammunition and artillery in defending against Russia’s attacks.  Russia is already using up to four times as many artillery shells as Ukraine, but somehow we think better training is the answer for Ukraine.¹  This is silly.  Better training is always good, but why can’t we get ammunition and artillery to Ukraine? 

It has been obvious since May or June of last year, if not before, that Ukraine needed ammunition and lots of it.  If we didn’t have enough, why weren’t we entering into contracts with suppliers last summer, so they could open plants, buy machinery, and hire workers to produce more ammunition?  If President Biden didn’t realize it, why didn’t the Pentagon tell him?

Tanks for Ukraine. A Day Late and a Dollar Short Again? But It Could be Worse.

Ukraine is, at last, getting some tanks.  But consider how long it took for everybody to agree, and it’s going to what even longer for them to finally get delivered.  How much more could Ukraine have accomplished if they had gotten the tanks earlier.  But then, that seems to have been the story all along.  We’re always giving Ukraine weapons three or four months (or longer) after we should have.  We seem to be giving enough weapons to Ukraine so they can stop Russia from winning, but we never give them enough to actually get this war over with. 

There are lots of reasons people give for not giving Ukraine more weapons (and capabilities).  I’ll address two of them.  The first is that Vladimir Putin might escalate to nuclear weapons.  If that is the determining factor, then maybe we ought to stop giving any weapons to Ukraine, because otherwise we are just fighting to the last Ukrainian, without ever giving them a chance to win.  Is that fair?

The Holocaust and “Never Again”. I Wish It Were So, But It Isn’t.

Today is International Holocaust Remembrance Day, except people don’t.  After the Holocaust, the pledge was “Never Again” – except it happens again and again.  

Last Saturday’s Wall Street Journal had an article on “The Communities That Risked Everything to Rescue Jews.”  It was a moving article about countries (Denmark, Albania), islands (Zakynthos, a Greek isle), and communities  (the Frenchtown of Le Chambon-sur-Lignon) who protected their Jews. 

But how many people are risking much of anything to protect others today.  Consider Rwanda in 1994.  Think of the “bug out” of Kabul in 2021.  And why did it take the U.S. and Germany so long to finally send tanks to Ukraine, where Vladimir Putin has been deliberately attacking civilians with rockets for months?  Some of those are not genocides (“genocide” is a word too easily thrown around today), but there are still innocent lives being lost that we could be doing something about.

But perhaps the most depressing thing on this Holocaust Remembrance Day may be the fact that the one thing uniting more and more of the far right and far left is hatred of Jews.